@article {10.34196/ijm.00111,
article_type = {journal},
title = {Data and model cross-validation to improve accuracy of microsimulation results: Estimates for the polish household budget survey},
author = {Myck, Michał and Najsztub, Mateusz},
volume = 8,
number = 1,
year = 2015,
month = {apr},
pub_date = {2015-04-30},
pages = {33-66},
citation = {IJM 2015;8(1):33-66},
doi = {10.34196/ijm.00111},
url = {https://doi.org/10.34196/ijm.00111},
abstract = {We conduct detailed analysis of the Polish Household Budget Survey data for the years 2006–2011 with the focus on its representativeness from the point of view of microsimulation analysis. We find important discrepancies between the aggregate data weighted with baseline grossing-up weights and official statistics from other sources. A number of re-weighting exercises is examined from the point of view of the accuracy of microsimulation results. We show that using a combination of variables from the data together with a small number of outcomes from the microsimulation model substantially improves the correspondence of simulation results and administrative data. While demographic re-weighting is neutral from the point of view of income distribution, calibrating the weights to adjust for income sources and tax identifiers significantly increases income inequality. We specify a number of factors which ought to be considered in the choice of weight calibration targets. Data re-weighting can substantially improve the accuracy of microsimulation but it should be used with caution.},
keywords = {re-weighting, microsimulation, income inequality},
journal = {IJM},
issn = {1747-5864},
publisher = {International Journal of Microsimulation},
}