@article {10.34196/ijm.00167,
article_type = {journal},
title = {Projected population, inequality and social expenditures: The Case of Flanders},
author = {De Blander, Rembert and Schockaert, Ingrid and Decoster, André and Deboosere, Patrick},
volume = 10,
number = 3,
year = 2017,
month = {dec},
pub_date = {2017-12-31},
pages = {92-133},
citation = {IJM 2017;10(3):92-133},
doi = {10.34196/ijm.00167},
url = {https://doi.org/10.34196/ijm.00167},
abstract = {We investigate the budgetary and distributional effects of a demographic and economic evolution in Flanders between 2011 and 2031. We project demographic changes by means of two multi-state population projections (LIPRO-projections), on the basis of which we statically reweigh the \textit{EU-SILC} 2008 dataset. In addition, we assume a modest real \textit{exogenous} –meaning not induced by the demographic projections– growth rate of 1\%. Population-wise, we find a pronounced ageing, a growth of single-headed households, mostly to the detriment of couples with children, and a closing generational gap in education. While income inequality exhibits a non-monotonous pattern over time (reaching a maximum around 2020), poverty steadily declines after 2011. We find a large increase in expenditures on pensions, which is, however, covered by the modest public income growth we assume, while keeping the tax system constant \textit{in real terms}.},
keywords = {inequality, poverty, population projections, budgetary sustainability},
journal = {IJM},
issn = {1747-5864},
publisher = {International Journal of Microsimulation},
}