@article {10.34196/ijm.00317,
article_type = {journal},
title = {The development of AUS-OA - a population health economic model of osteoarthritis in Australia},
author = {Schilling, Chris and Zhou, Yushy and Rele, Siddharth and Shadbolt, Cade and Thuraisingam, Sharmala and O’Brien, Penny and Knight, Josh and Zakariyya, Nabeeh and Dowsey, Michelle and Choong, Peter},
volume = 18,
number = 1,
year = 2025,
month = {apr},
pub_date = {2025-04-30},
pages = {84-94},
citation = {IJM 2025;18(1):84-94},
doi = {10.34196/ijm.00317},
url = {https://doi.org/10.34196/ijm.00317},
abstract = {Simulation modelling is a powerful tool for assessing the impact of diseases and guiding healthcare policy decisions. This paper introduces AUS-OA, a dynamic discrete time microsimulation model of osteoarthritis and its treatment in Australia. AUS-OA aims to provide policy makers and researchers with increased capacity to evaluate the burden and treatment of osteoarthritis across Australia. AUS-OA uses a synthetic base population of individuals with age, sex, Body Mass Index (BMI), osteoarthritis and other attributes weighted to the Australian population. Body mass index, osteoarthritis incidence and progression, primary and revision joint replacement are modelled over time based on econometric equations derived from linked and longitudinal data. Costs and health-related quality of life outcomes are then assigned based on an individual’s health conditions and treatments. AUS-OA is calibrated with observed data between 2013 and 2022. Base case and ‘what-if’ scenarios can then be simulated from 2023. For an initial application, AUS-OA was used for an economic evaluation of a decision support tool, SMART Choice, that improves patient selection into surgery. Comparisons of univariate and bivariate distributions across key population attributions such as BMI, osteoarthritis and joint replacement between the synthetic and actual populations highlight that the AUS-OA model accurately reflects the Australian population over the calibration period. The evaluation of the SMART Choice decision support tool highlighted that the tool is cost-effective. AUS-OA provides a robust analytical framework for evaluating the long-term, population-level impact of osteoarthritis and its treatments.},
keywords = {Health planning, Osteoarthritis, Microsimulation, Quality of life, Chronic disease, SMART choice},
journal = {IJM},
issn = {1747-5864},
publisher = {International Journal of Microsimulation},
}